Current developments affecting transactions, mortgage rates, inventory, pricing, property economics and staffing. Updated as the evidence changes.
New since October 14: 2 verified updates. Earlier intelligence remains below.
September permits for single-family homes declined to an 845,000 annual rate. Housing starts also fell, although the monthly starts estimate is too imprecise to confirm a decline.
Weakening demandReal Estate / SalesSeptember signed contracts dropped in all four U.S. regions. The decline is a forward-looking warning, even though closed existing-home sales rose slightly that month.
DevelopingFinancingFreddie Mac’s 30-year rate rose for a sixth straight week. September closings improved slightly, but the underlying housing market remains weak.
New developmentEconomicThe Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16. For rate-sensitive businesses, the immediate issue is higher financing cost, not a broad collapse in demand.
PersistentFinancingThe average 30-year fixed mortgage reached 6.95% on September 17, up from 6.76% a week earlier.
SofteningHousing MarketAugust existing-home sales fell 2.0% to a 3.98 million annual rate as inventory climbed to 1.62 million homes.
EasingPricesFHFA reported U.S. house prices up 2.1% year over year in the second quarter and just 0.3% from the prior quarter.
SofteningLaborReal-estate payrolls fell by about 3,200 jobs in August, while real estate and rental/leasing fell by 3,500.
Single-family permits fall 4% as builders pull back on new projects
Watch: October permits and starts due November 18; local permit applications and cancellations; builder incentives; and subcontractor backlogs rather than national starts alone.
Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau — September new residential construction, October 20
Pending home sales fall 7.3% as mortgage costs hold back buyers
Watch: October existing-home sales due November 12, October pending contracts due November 18, weekly mortgage rates, local days on market, and the gap between asking and accepted prices.
Evidence: National Association of Realtors — September pending-home sales, October 20
Earlier evidence: Freddie Mac