Pending home sales fall 7.3% as mortgage costs hold back buyers

September signed contracts dropped in all four U.S. regions. The decline is a forward-looking warning, even though closed existing-home sales rose slightly that month.

Weakening demand Updated October 28, 2026 · High confidence

What changed?

The National Association of Realtors reported October 20 that pending home sales fell 7.3% in September from August and 11.3% from September 2025. All four regions declined on a monthly basis.

Existing-home closings had increased 1.5% in September, but closings reflect contracts signed earlier. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.32% for the week ended October 22, down from 7.40% the week before. Separately, Census reported October 27 that September new-home sales edged down 0.6% to a 676,000 annual rate; that small monthly change was within the survey’s margin of error.

Why does it matter?

Pending sales are a better near-term gauge of resale closings than the same month’s completed sales. The sharp drop in signed contracts suggests that the small September rise in closings may not continue without better financing conditions.

This is a national indicator, not a forecast for every neighborhood. Local inventory, listing prices, buyer incomes and the share of cash purchases can change the picture substantially.

Who is most exposed?

Residential brokerages, mortgage originators, title and escrow businesses, home inspectors, and sellers whose listings depend on financed buyers.

What should businesses watch next?

October existing-home sales due November 12, October pending contracts due November 18, weekly mortgage rates, local days on market, and the gap between asking and accepted prices.

Trend check: A large one-month decline in signed contracts, reinforced by a year-over-year drop. It is an early signal, not a guarantee of lower closings in every market.

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