Retail and restaurant sales rose in September, but gasoline lifted the headline

Census estimates put retail and food-service receipts up 0.8% in September. Excluding gasoline stations, sales rose only 0.2%, while restaurants and bars gained 1.1%.

Mixed signal Updated October 28, 2026 · High confidence

What changed?

The Census Bureau’s October 15 advance estimate put September retail and food-service sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier. August’s monthly gain was revised to 1.3%.

The breakdown matters more than the headline. Gasoline-station receipts increased 6.4% in September, while total retail and food-service sales excluding gasoline stations rose just 0.2%. Food services and drinking places increased 1.1% for the month and 7.0% from a year earlier. Retail sales excluding food services rose 0.7%.

Why does it matter?

Higher dollar sales are not the same as higher customer traffic. Census figures are adjusted for seasonal patterns but not inflation. Higher fuel prices can raise gasoline-station receipts even when drivers buy no more fuel; the release does not isolate that price effect.

For restaurants, the 1.1% monthly rise in receipts is encouraging but does not contradict separate evidence of weaker quick-service visits. A higher average check, a change in mix, and more transactions can all increase receipts. Operators need their own transaction counts to tell the difference.

Who is most exposed?

Gas stations, grocery and general-merchandise retailers, restaurant operators, and businesses that interpret national spending growth as a signal to increase staffing or inventory.

What should businesses watch next?

October category-level sales in the November 17 Census release; local transactions and average ticket; gasoline prices; and the gap between nominal sales growth and customer counts.

Trend check: A new official monthly reading confirms nominal spending growth. The concentration in gasoline and the absence of inflation adjustment limit what it says about underlying demand.

Related Industry Intelligence: Retail · Restaurants