Current developments affecting consumer demand, e-commerce, inventory, pricing and labor across retail. Updated as the evidence changes.
New since October 14: 2 verified updates. Earlier intelligence remains below.
Census estimates put retail and food-service receipts up 0.8% in September. Excluding gasoline stations, sales rose only 0.2%, while restaurants and bars gained 1.1%.
PersistentRetail / Input CostsImport prices increased 1.1% in September. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% for the month and have not posted a monthly decline since August 2025.
DevelopingCostsGasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly CPI increase. Restaurant menu prices kept rising even as grocery prices edged lower.
PersistentDemandCard-based retail data show a twelfth straight monthly gain. The increase was modest, and NRF changed its methodology with this report.
DevelopingDemandSeptember confidence fell sharply while major retailers moved more aggressively on price. The evidence points to a more value-conscious consumer, not yet to an across-the-board spending contraction.
DevelopingCostsThe two countries plan reciprocal reductions covering $60 billion in goods and extended their trade truce into January. For importers, this is selective cost relief rather than a return to pre-tariff conditions.
AcceleratingDemandU.S. retail and food-services sales rose 1.2% in August and were 6.0% above a year earlier.
AcceleratingE-commerceSecond-quarter e-commerce sales rose 12.2% year over year and accounted for 17.1% of total retail sales.
BuildingInventoryRetail inventories reached $838.5 billion in July, up 0.7% from June and 3.8% from a year earlier.
MixedLaborRetail employment changed little in August even as consumer spending strengthened.
Retail and restaurant sales rose in September, but gasoline lifted the headline
Watch: October category-level sales in the November 17 Census release; local transactions and average ticket; gasoline prices; and the gap between nominal sales growth and customer counts.
Evidence: U.S. Census Bureau — September retail and food services sales, October 15
Import prices rise again, with nonfuel costs up 6% over a year
Watch: October import-price indexes due November 17; nonfuel price changes by product category; landed costs including duties and shipping; and supplier lead times.
Evidence: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — September import/export price indexes, October 16
Earlier evidence: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · National Retail Federation