Retail spending grows again in September, despite weaker confidence

Card-based retail data show a twelfth straight monthly gain. The increase was modest, and NRF changed its methodology with this report.

Persistent Updated October 14, 2026 · High

What changed?

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported September retail sales of $560.8 billion excluding auto dealers and gas stations, up 0.28% from August and 4.05% from a year earlier. Core sales, which also exclude restaurants, reached $453.1 billion, up 0.27% month over month and 3.73% year over year.

NRF describes September as the twelfth consecutive month of retail-sales growth. It also says the enhanced methodology used in the September release makes these figures not directly comparable with Retail Monitor numbers issued before September 2026. That caveat matters when assessing the size of any acceleration.

Why does it matter?

The new spending data add a harder transaction-based check on September’s very weak consumer-confidence reading. Customers are still buying, but the pace of month-to-month growth is small and nominal sales can rise because prices are higher.

For retailers, the useful question is whether unit demand and gross margin are holding up after discounts. The report does not prove that holiday demand will remain strong.

Who is most exposed?

Discretionary retailers entering holiday promotions, stores carrying slow-moving inventory, and smaller merchants competing on price with large chains.

What should businesses watch next?

October retail transactions, unit volume where available, markdown rates, returns and holiday guidance. Compare NRF’s revised series with itself rather than splicing it mechanically to older releases; cross-check with the next Census retail-sales report.

Trend check: Twelve consecutive monthly gains in NRF’s series; the latest release has a methodology break that limits direct historical comparisons.

Related Industry Intelligence: Retail